MONTGOMERY, Ala. -- Gov. Bob Riley is tired of seeing Alabama near the bottom in the national rankings. He says it is time voters demand as much from their public schools and state government as they do from their college football teams.

The price for change: a $1.2 billion tax increase that would be the biggest in Alabama history and the largest in percentage terms of any state this year.

Polls show Riley's proposal, which will be put to the voters on Tuesday, trailing by more than 20 percentage points. But Riley is campaigning across the state as hard as he did in last year's election for governor.

"For all my life, we've been 47th, 48th or 49th. I have never understood why," said the 58-year-old Republican. "Is there something about us that says we can't excel at something other than football? I don't believe that."

Many states raised taxes and fees in 2003 to cope with budget problems. New York had the biggest overall tax increase -- nearly $2 billion -- but Alabama's is the largest in terms of boosting state revenue -- 9.2 percent in the first year and 20 percent when completely phased in over four years.

Most states in the region face the same budget problems as Alabama, and other governors are said to be watching Riley's referendum closely.

Riley, a Southern Baptist in a Bible Belt state, has suggested that Christian voters ought to help the poor by reforming a state tax structure that he calls immoral. But even the Alabama Christian Coalition has come out against the plan.

In fact, Riley's plan has shattered the traditional political lineup in Alabama. The state Republican Party is encouraging Alabamians to reject it, while the state Democratic Party has endorsed it.

State GOP chairman Marty Connors said the governor should have done more cost-cutting rather than proposing a tax increase four months into his term. "It's too much too soon," Connors said.

"My response is we've done too little for too long," Riley said.

A February study by Governing magazine found that Alabamians spend just 6 percent of their personal income on state taxes, 40th in the country.

But polls show Alabama taxpayers do not trust Montgomery politicians with more of their tax money, and they doubt a millionaire Republican governor would really help the poor.

"Most people don't trust the government. They don't believe what they are telling them," said Wilbert Richardson, a Montgomery mechanic.

House Speaker Seth Hammett, a Democrat who has been campaigning for Riley's plan, expects it to fail Tuesday. "It's about trust, and we don't trust our elected officials to do the right thing," Hammett said.

If the plan fails, Riley said, he will have to make drastic budget cuts. He predicts the state will turn loose 5,000 inmates, increase class sizes by as much as 50 percent, remove hundreds of elderly Medicaid patients from nursing homes, and drop to 50th in virtually every national ranking.