GILLETTE-- The ratio of turbines to smokestacks in Wyoming's futurewill likely be decided by consumers in California, Arizona, Utah and Colorado.

"Those are the faster-growing areas looking for a diverse portfolio of power supply," said Steve Waddington, executive director of the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority.

With world-class wind and coal resources, Wyoming's future involves a lot of wind turbines and power plants specifically for the business of exporting power. Waddington estimates that Wyoming will see between 3,000 and 10,000 megawatts of new electrical generation within the next 15 years.

Why such a large spread? Because of unknowns surrounding the potential for integrated gasification combined cycle, or IGCC, in Wyoming.

Waddington said to get to the higher end of the range, Wyoming must move away from emissions-heavy pulverized coal power plants and prove that the near-zero emissions IGCC process is a profitable enterprise here. In other words, Wyoming must clean up the coal it burns at home because the Western market demands it.

"We'll have to provide power that meets consumer demands and the regulatory framework that's out there," said Waddington.

Just as some customers are willing to pay a premium rate for wind energy, California's recent greenhouse gas emissions initiative -- which essentially bans the import of new power from pulverized coal-fired power plants -- signals that it is willing to pay a premium for the new technology.

Whether other Western markets follow suit remains to be seen, but California's willingness to pay an IGCC premium can only help "demonstrate" the commercial viability of doing IGCC in Wyoming, said Waddington. Overcoming Wyoming's relatively high altitude and high-moisture coal add to cost of IGCC.

Waddington said his group expects to announce in January its choice for a partner in building an IGCC demonstration plant in Wyoming, which will qualify for federal subsidies. That effort is also backed by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and California's senior senator, Democrat Dianne Feinstein.

All of Wyoming's prospective customers in the West want their future electricity supply to be a mix of coal and renewable resources. So whether power generation in Wyoming climbs by 3,000 megawatts or 10,000 megawatts, at least half of that new power is likely to come from wind turbines, said Waddington.

Concerns over climate change continue to build momentum for renewable portfolio standards, which require utilities to get a specific percentage of their power from renewable resources usually wind, hydropower, solar, biomass or geothermal. Colorado, Montana, Arizona and New Mexico have all adopted renewable portfolio standards, and Nevada and California have the most ambitious.

Powder River Basin changes

While it appears that IGCC may have a future in Wyoming, that doesn't mean that much will change for Wyoming's coal producers anytime soon. Even if Wyoming achieves its ambition to become a major electrical supplier for the West, its appetite for Powder River Basin coal will still pale in comparison to the rest of the U.S. market.

American Electric Power and other major Powder River Basin coal users in the Midwest have announced plans to build IGCC plants, but that doesn't mean they've stopped building new pulverized coal-fired plants.

AEP spokeswoman Melissa McHenry said her company is already in the process of building two 629 megawatt IGCC plants. But even when those 1,258 megawatts of IGCC power come online in the next 10 years or so, IGCC will still be overshadowed by AEP's other 25,000 megawatts of pulverized coal-fired power plants.

And those IGCC power plants won't be burning Powder River Basin coal.

McHenry said AEP has partnered with General Electric to use its IGCC patented process, which uses Eastern bituminous coal and comes with a performance guarantee. Shell has an IGCC process that uses sub-bituminous coal, but it doesn't provide a performance guarantee.

"Shell has the technology that our engineers think is good for lower-rank, higher-moisture coals. But right now they're not willing to offer a performance guarantee," McHenry said. "So for those of us operating in a regulated environment, there is some concern."

While PRB coal producers may not be picking up new IGCC customers in Eastern U.S. so far, it does stand to increase contracts in current construction of "super critical" and "ultra-super-critical" pulverized coal-fired power plants.

Dave Johnson of the Powder River Basin Coal User's Group said that Midwestern utilities, which make up most of the PRB market, are feverishly building power plants to fill a gap between current power supply and growth in demand. New power plants in Arizona, Texas and Iowa all plan to use Powder River Basin coal.

News Tracker

Last we knew: The Wyoming Infrastructure Authority is working to attract construction of wind and coal-based power generation in the state so that Wyoming can boost its power export industry.

The latest: California and other Western customers may demand that coal-based power in Wyoming be built with near-zero emissions coal-gasification technology.

What's next: The Wyoming Infrastructure Authority plans to announce an IGCC partner in January.

Energy reporter Dustin Bleizeffer can be reached at (307) 682-3388 or dustin.bleizeffercasperstartribune.net.

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