CHEYENNE -- Republican U.S. House candidate Cynthia Lummis last week paid a visit to a beverage distribution company owned by longtime family friend Craig Lewis.

It took Lewis, speaking with Lummis in his office at Cheyenne Beverage, just a few seconds to ask a question that’s been popping up a lot in the final weeks of the campaign:

Why is the race so darn close?

Lummis shook her head and answered that she frankly didn’t know.

Lummis faces Democrat Gary Trauner and independent David Herbert on Nov. 4, and by many measures she would seem to be the candidate in the best position to win.

Lummis, 54, is a Wyoming native, a member of the dominant political party and served more than two decades in elected state office.

She hails from a Cheyenne-area ranch family and graduated from law school at the University of Wyoming.

Last year, the state Republican Party nominated her as one of three finalists to become the state’s next U.S. senator after Sen. Craig Thomas died. Gov. Dave Freudenthal chose Sen. John Barrasso for the job.

Despite her sparkling credentials, a Casper Star-Tribune poll last week showed Lummis in a statistical tie with Trauner, businessman from Wilson. A more recent poll by Roll Call newspaper shows Lummis opening up a lead.

Lummis also lags Trauner in fundraising, and voter polls in Cheyenne, a critical part of the state in this race.

"Out best information shows we’re losing in Cheyenne," said Lummis, who raced around Cheyenne last week in the family Land Cruiser, working to pick up votes.

Some campaign watchers have speculated that Lummis is simply struggling to run a competitive campaign after two easy races for state treasurer and two years away from elected office. She ran unopposed in her most recent contest in 2002.

Lummis insists that isn’t true, and noted her seven successful legislative races between 1979 and 1994 in a heavily Democratic district as proof of her skills.

"All of my legislative races were very, very tough," Lummis said.

Others have speculated that Lummis’ past health problems have flared up, keeping her off the campaign trail. But Lummis said the thyroid disease that slowed her down a few years ago is under control.

"I feel great," Lummis said. "For two years I have tested normal and felt normal."

"If you look at her travel schedule," added Annaliese Wiederspahn, Lummis’ campaign spokeswoman and daughter, "there is no way someone who wasn't feeling well could handle this kind of travel schedule."

Unfortunate missteps

Another potential weak spot in the campaign is Lummis’ inexperienced staff.

Wiederspahn, 23, left a finance job in New York City in January to run her mother's campaign press office. Lummis, Wiederspahn and a scheduler comprised the entire campaign staff until May.

Campaign manager Tucker Fagan, the former Wyoming Business Council CEO who joined the team later, is also a relative newcomer to politics.

But Lummis said it’s critical to hire Wyoming people to run a statewide campaign in Wyoming, and U.S. Sens. Mike Enzi and John Barrasso snapped up many of the most experienced campaign workers.

By contrast, several of Trauner’s campaign workers hail from other parts of the country.

"Wyoming is so unique that it’s my opinion that you need people who have lived here to work with you," Lummis said.

A couple of unfortunate missteps in the campaign could also be playing a role in the recent statewide poll numbers.

In September, a Lummis staffer called into a Trauner news conference under a fake name. The staffer promptly left the campaign.

More recently, Lummis made a mistake in a debate in which she referred to presidential candidate Barack Obama as "Osama."

But University of Wyoming political scientist Jim King said those stumbles happened early enough in the campaign that they probably won’t be a major factor on Election Day.

The Trauner campaign has blasted Lummis in TV ads for her connections to U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin. But Lummis insists that she is her own person with her own record, and only missed five votes in 14 years as a state lawmaker.

"I showed up for work," said Lummis, an apparent reference to Cubin’s absences for a number of votes in recent years. Cubin’s husband was ill during the period, and the congresswoman has suffered from health problems, as well.

Hard at work

Lummis said she is lagging in polls of Cheyenne voters because the capital city is home to a lot of Democrats and independents, and has always been a tough place for Republicans to win.

Lummis also said the tough primary race forced her to spend money elsewhere in the state to build name recognition.

"I had to emphasize parts of the state where I’m not as well known, and rely on word of mouth here," Lummis said.

To make up for the lagging support in Cheyenne, Lummis spent two full days here last week – a fairly large appropriation of time in an rapidly shortening race.

During a whirlwind day of campaigning last Tuesday, she spoke with workers at the Wyoming Department of Transportation and knocked on doors and passed out fliers in her own neighborhood in Cheyenne.

She ran into plenty of familiar faces along the way, such as former high school classmate and now WYDOT engineer Bill Bailey of Cheyenne.

Bailey said Lummis was popular, intelligent and showed leadership skills in high school, so he wasn’t surprised to hear about her campaign for Congress.

"I can’t think of anyone in the state who would be more qualified in that position," Bailey said.

A “true Republican”

Lummis is focusing on tax cuts and energy as she talks to voters.

She insists the Bush tax cuts must be made permanent, and she has pledged not to raise taxes.

She supports "across the board" spending cuts and wants to increase revenue by drilling off shore.

She is also focused on gun rights and breaking America’s dependence on foreign oil.

During an hour-long discussion with workers at Cheyenne Beverage Inc., Lummis hammered Trauner for his support of a bill that she said would deny workers the right to a secret ballot vote on union affiliation.

Trauner has disputed the claim that the bill would ban secret ballots.

Mike Burke, general manager at Cheyenne Beverage, a self-described "basic Republican," said Lummis had all the right answers and seemed like a "true Republican."

"But I’m not sure she can get it done" in Washington, said Burke, "because it’s a Democratic Congress."

The latest poll numbers from Roll Call show Lummis gaining steam as the campaign enters its final days.

The poll of 604 likely voters, and a margin of error of about 4 percent, shows Lummis with 50 percent of the vote, Trauner with 44 percent and Herbert with 4 percent.

Lummis is also polling stronger among Republicans than she was last week, with just 2 percent of voters still undecided.

If the numbers hold true on Election Day, it will mean that despite a few bumps in the road, and a race that looked too close to call, Lummis convinced Republican voters to stick with her through a tough campaign.

Contact state capital bureau reporter Jared Miller at (307) 632-1244 or jared.miller@trib.com.

Go to www.trib.com/slideshow/lummis for a slideshow of "A Day in the Life of Cynthia Lummis.